HUFEUR closes within prior day's range
Hungarian Forint/Euro (HUFEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
HUFEUR ended the month -2.21% lower at 0.0028212 after gaining 154 pips (0.55%) today. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (HUFEUR as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 347 pips (1.24%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of 219 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for HUFEUR.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. Regardless of a weak opening the market managed to close above the previous day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on May 18th, HUFEUR gained 0.98% on the following trading day.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.0028282 (R1), the currency closed below it after spiking up to 0.0028320 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 0.0027976 in the prior session, HUF/EUR found buyers again around the same price level today at 0.0027973.
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 0.0028762.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Engulfing Candle" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for HUF/EUR. Out of 98 times, HUFEUR closed lower 54.08% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.14% with an average market move of -0.19%.