HUFEUR breaks above 20-day moving average for the first time since January 6th
Hungarian Forint/Euro (HUFEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, HUFEUR finished the week 0.83% higher at 0.0029809 after surging 194 pips (0.66%) today. This is the biggest single-day gain in over a month. Today's close at 0.0029809 marks the highest recorded closing price since January 21st. Closing above Thursday's high at 0.0029677, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 192 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (HUFEUR as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 287 pips (0.97%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of 191 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly lower than usual for HUFEUR.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
The forex pair managed to close above the 20-day moving average at 0.0029671 for the first time since January 6th. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on January 2nd, HUFEUR actually lost -0.35% on the following trading day. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.0029832 (R1), the pair closed below it after spiking up to 0.0029869 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward.
Though the FX pair is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "White Candle" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for HUF/EUR. Out of 437 times, HUFEUR closed lower 52.86% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.52% with an average market move of -0.26%.