HKDNZD still stuck within tight trading range
Hong Kong Dollar/New Zealand Dollar (HKDNZD) Technical Analysis Report for Apr 16, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
HKDNZD finished Tuesday at 0.1885 losing 1 pip (-0.05%). Trading 6 pips higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (HKDNZD as at Apr 16, 2019):
Tuesday's trading range has been 9 pips (0.48%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 14 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for HKDNZD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.1880 and 0.1899 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.1889 (R1), the currency closed below it after spiking up to 0.1892 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on April 3rd, HKDNZD actually gained 0.37% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 0.1873 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for HKD/NZD. Out of 585 times, HKDNZD closed lower 52.48% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.56% with an average market move of -0.16%.