HKDCHF runs into sellers again around 0.1230
Hong Kong Dollar/Swiss Franc (HKDCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
HKDCHF finished the month -1.45% lower at 0.1222 after losing 5 pips (-0.41%) today. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (HKDCHF as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 9 pips (0.73%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 9 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for HKDCHF.
Despite a strong opening the FX pair closed below the prior day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.1218 (S1). After having been unable to move above 0.1229 in the previous session, HKD/CHF ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 0.1230. The last time this happened on June 26th, HKDCHF actually gained 0.33% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 0.1218 where further sell stops could get triggered. As prices are trading close to June's low at 0.1210, downside momentum might accelerate should the currency mark new lows for the month.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Decisive Down Move" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for HKD/CHF. Out of 282 times, HKDCHF closed higher 51.42% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.55% with an average market move of 0.21%.