GBPPLN climbs to highest close since December 6, 2018
British Pound/Polish Zloty (GBPPLN) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
GBPPLN ended the week 0.24% higher at 4.8057 after surging 438 pips (0.92%) today. This is the biggest single-day gain in over two months. Today's close at 4.8057 marks the highest recorded closing price since December 6, 2018. Closing above Thursday's high at 4.7767, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 471 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (GBPPLN as at Jan 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been 838 pips (1.76%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of 457 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for GBPPLN. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 4.7400 and 4.8238 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. Notwithstanding a weak opening the forex pair managed to close above the prior day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
GBP/PLN managed to close back above the 20-day moving average at 4.7705. After spiking up to 4.8238 during the day, the currency found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 4.8207. The last time this happened on November 28, 2018, GBPPLN lost -0.54% on the following trading day. The FX pair found buyers again today around 4.7400 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 4.7425 in the previous session and at 4.7487 two days ago.
Crossing above the upper Bollinger Band for the first time since October 10, 2018, prices have shown unusually strong upward momentum in the short-term. This might either indicate a potential buying climax after which prices could head back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 4.7705 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even higher prices.
The pair shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Further buying might move prices higher should the market test December's nearby high at 4.8397. Further selling could move prices lower should the market test December's close-by low at 4.7238.
Among the 17 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close crossed above the upper Bollinger Band" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for GBP/PLN. Out of 90 times, GBPPLN closed lower 57.78% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.78% with an average market move of -0.32%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.71% and NZDUSD closing 0.69% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been EURUSD closing -0.27% lower and USDCHF losing -0.09%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been NZDCAD surging 0.98% and GBPCAD closing 0.97% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURNZD tanking -1.04% and EURGBP closing -0.99% lower. Read more