GBPNZD breaks back above 20-day moving average
British Pound/New Zealand Dollar (GBPNZD) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, GBPNZD ended Thursday at 2.0472 gaining 175 pips (0.86%). Closing above Wednesday's high at 2.0437, the pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 80 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (GBPNZD as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 273 pips (1.35%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 485 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly higher than usual for GBPNZD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 1.9954 and 2.0779 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle. The last time a White Candle showed up on March 12th, GBPNZD actually lost -3.97% on the following trading day.
The market managed to close back above the 20-day moving average at 2.0373 for the first time since March 12th. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 2.0674 (R1).
Although the forex pair is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 2.0779 where further buy stops might get triggered.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "RSI(2) above 80" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for GBP/NZD. Out of 273 times, GBPNZD closed higher 53.85% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.01% with an average market move of -0.00%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 2.72% and NZDUSD closing 1.88% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCHF closing -1.43% lower and USDJPY losing -1.42%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPHKD surging 2.72% and GBPZAR closing 2.65% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -4.12% and USDNOK closing -3.12% lower. Read more