GBPHKD runs into sellers again around 10.1468
British Pound/Hong Kong Dollar (GBPHKD) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 5th day in a row, GBPHKD finished the week 1.27% higher at 10.1345 after gaining 26 pips (0.03%) today on low volume. Trading up to 318 pips lower after the open, the forex pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (GBPHKD as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 486 pips (0.48%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 719 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for GBPHKD.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top. The last time a Bullish Spinning Top showed up on January 15th, GBPHKD gained 0.31% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 10.0952 (S1). Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 10.1654 (R1). After having been unable to move above 10.1507 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 10.1468.
Although still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 10.1507 where further buy stops could get triggered. As prices are trading close to February's high at 10.2390, upside momentum might speed up should the FX pair mark new highs for the month.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "5 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for GBP/HKD. Out of 37 times, GBPHKD closed lower 51.35% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.76% with an average market move of -0.30%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are USDCAD losing -0.12% and EURUSD closing -0.08% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.28% higher and GBPUSD gaining 0.02%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDSEK surging 0.51% and EURSEK closing 0.43% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURHUF tanking -0.65% and USDHUF closing -0.58% lower. Read more