GBPAUD closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
British Pound/Australian Dollar (GBPAUD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
GBPAUD ended the month -2.98% lower at 1.7964 after gaining 53 pips (0.3%) today on low volume. Trading up to 48 pips lower after the open, the forex pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on June 24th, GBPAUD actually lost -0.28% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (GBPAUD as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 103 pips (0.57%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 182 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for GBPAUD.
After moving lower in the previous session, the market managed to close higher but below the prior day's open, forming a bullish Harami Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 1.8057 (R1).
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and might now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 1.8137.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 1.8134 where further buy stops might get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Up Close near high of period" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for GBP/AUD. Out of 495 times, GBPAUD closed lower 52.32% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.54% with an average market move of -0.12%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more