EURUSD pushes through key technical resistance level
Euro/US Dollar (EURUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 03, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EURUSD finished the week 0.27% higher at 1.1248 after edging higher 9 pips (0.08%) today on low volume. Trading up to 20 pips lower after the open, EUR/USD managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURUSD as at Jul 03, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 33 pips (0.29%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 88 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably lower than usual for EURUSD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 1.1185 and 1.1303 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Hammer. The last time a Hammer showed up on May 14th, EURUSD gained 0.14% on the following trading day.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 1.1241 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 1.1222 in the previous session, the Fiber found buyers again around the same price level today at 1.1219.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 1.1303 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 1.1185 where further sell stops could get triggered. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test June's close-by low at 1.1100.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Hammer" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for EUR/USD. Out of 29 times, EURUSD closed higher 68.97% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 48.28% with an average market move of 0.32%.
With three out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are NZDUSD gaining 0.35% and AUDUSD closing 0.2% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.1% lower and USDCHF losing -0.01%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been EURHUF surging 0.57% and USDHUF closing 0.44% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -0.6% and EURNOK closing -0.51% lower. Read more