EURUSD pushes through Friday's high
Euro/US Dollar (EURUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 29, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EURUSD finished Monday at 1.1242 gaining 24 pips (0.21%) on low volume. Closing above Friday's high at 1.1240, the currency confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to 48 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURUSD as at Jun 29, 2020):
Monday's trading range has been 72 pips (0.64%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 96 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly lower than usual for EURUSD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 1.1191 and 1.1288 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 1.1241 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. After spiking up to 1.1288 during the day, the Euro found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 1.1265. The last time this happened on May 15th, EURUSD actually gained 0.88% on the following trading day.
While the forex pair is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 1.1191 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Hikkake Pattern" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for EUR/USD. Out of 129 times, EURUSD closed lower 54.26% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.24% with an average market move of -0.30%.
With three of the other Major FX Pairs closing higher and three closing lower today, the winners of the day are USDCHF surging 0.33% and USDJPY gaining 0.33%. On the flipside the worst performers have been GBPUSD closing -0.29% lower and USDCAD losing -0.2%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been EURJPY surging 0.55% and EURCHF closing 0.55% higher. The worst performers of the day have been GBPPLN tanking -0.78% and GBPCAD closing -0.5% lower. Read more