EURUSD fails to close above 100-day moving average
Euro/US Dollar (EURUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 5th day in a row, EURUSD finished Thursday at 1.1032 surging 150 pips (1.38%). This is the biggest single-day gain in over two weeks. The last time we've seen such an unusually strong single-day gain on March 9th, EURUSD actually lost -1.39% on the following trading day. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Wednesday's high at 1.0894, the FX pair confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to 165 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURUSD as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 189 pips (1.74%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 174 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for EURUSD.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
The forex pair managed to close back above the 50-day moving average at 1.0998 for the first time since March 16th. After spiking up to 1.1059 during the day, EUR/USD found resistance at the 100-day moving average at 1.1045.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "5 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for EUR/USD. Out of 27 times, EURUSD closed lower 66.67% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 74.07% with an average market move of -0.46%.
With three of the other Major FX Pairs closing higher and three closing lower today, the winners of the day are GBPUSD surging 2.72% and NZDUSD gaining 1.88%. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCHF closing -1.43% lower and USDJPY losing -1.42%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPHKD surging 2.72% and GBPZAR closing 2.65% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -4.12% and USDNOK closing -3.12% lower. Read more