EURUSD pushes through key technical resistance level
Euro/US Dollar (EURUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 25, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 4th day in a row, EURUSD finished Wednesday at 1.0882 gaining 93 pips (0.86%). The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURUSD as at Mar 25, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been 134 pips (1.24%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 171 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for EURUSD.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle. The last time a White Candle showed up on March 16th, EURUSD actually lost -1.66% on the following trading day.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 1.0827 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 1.0992 (R1). After having been unable to move above 1.0888 in the prior session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 1.0894.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "4 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for EUR/USD. Out of 81 times, EURUSD closed lower 66.67% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.79% with an average market move of -0.18%.
With three of the other Major FX Pairs closing higher and three closing lower today, the winners of the day are GBPUSD surging 1.01% and NZDUSD gaining 0.38%. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -1.88% lower and USDCHF losing -0.45%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been CADSGD surging 2.0% and CADHKD closing 1.91% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -3.67% and USDNOK closing -3.18% lower. Read more