EURUSD falls to lowest close since November 29, 2019
Euro/US Dollar (EURUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 24, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, EURUSD ended the week -0.59% lower at 1.1025 after losing 31 pips (-0.28%) today on high volume. Today's close at 1.1025 marks the lowest recorded closing price since November 29, 2019. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 1.1036, the currency confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 16 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURUSD as at Jan 24, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 42 pips (0.38%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 49 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for EURUSD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 1.1000 (S1).
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since September 30, 2019, prices have shown unusually strong downward momentum in the short-term. This could either indicate a potential selling climax after which prices might head back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 1.1129 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices. The last time prices broke out below the lower Bollinger Band on September 30, 2019, EURUSD actually gained 0.30% on the following trading day.
The FX pair shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Further selling could move prices lower should the market test December's nearby low at 1.1003.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for EUR/USD. Out of 323 times, EURUSD closed lower 49.85% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after five trading days, showing a win rate of 52.63% with an average market move of 0.01%.
With four out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are GBPUSD losing -0.41% and AUDUSD closing -0.34% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.23% higher and USDCAD gaining 0.14%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDNOK surging 0.57% and USDPLN closing 0.53% higher. The worst performers of the day have been GBPJPY tanking -0.6% and AUDJPY closing -0.53% lower. Read more