EURUSD breaks below 100-day moving average for the first time since December 9, 2019
Euro/US Dollar (EURUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 23, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EURUSD ended Thursday at 1.1056 losing 38 pips (-0.34%) on high volume. Today's close at 1.1056 marks the lowest recorded closing price since November 29, 2019. Closing below Wednesday's low at 1.1070, EUR/USD confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 34 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURUSD as at Jan 23, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 73 pips (0.66%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of 48 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for EURUSD.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on January 17th, EURUSD actually gained 0.05% on the following trading day.
The Euro closed below the 100-day moving average at 1.1069 for the first time since December 9, 2019.
While the pair is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Further selling could move prices lower should the market test December's close-by low at 1.1003.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Outside Bar" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for EUR/USD. Out of 141 times, EURUSD closed lower 56.74% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after nine trading days, showing a win rate of 49.65% with an average market move of 0.03%.
With three of the other Major FX Pairs closing higher and three closing lower today, the winners of the day are NZDUSD surging 0.38% and USDCHF gaining 0.11%. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDJPY closing -0.32% lower and GBPUSD losing -0.12%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been NZDSGD surging 0.57% and USDPLN closing 0.53% higher. The worst performers of the day have been ZARJPY tanking -0.91% and EURNZD closing -0.72% lower. Read more