EURUSD breaks below 50-day moving average for the first time since October 15th
Euro/US Dollar (EURUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Nov 08, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 5th day in a row, EURUSD ended the week -1.31% lower at 1.1019 after losing 31 pips (-0.28%) today. Today's close at 1.1019 marks the lowest recorded closing price since October 10th. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 1.1036, the pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 20 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURUSD as at Nov 08, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been 40 pips (0.36%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 50 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for EURUSD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 1.0991 (S1). The market closed below the 50-day moving average at 1.1039 for the first time since October 15th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on July 19th, EURUSD lost -0.11% on the following trading day.
EUR/USD shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 50" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for EUR/USD. Out of 108 times, EURUSD closed higher 57.41% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.70% with an average market move of 0.12%.
With four out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are NZDUSD losing -0.61% and AUDUSD closing -0.57% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCAD closing 0.4% higher and USDCHF gaining 0.23%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDZAR surging 0.79% and USDSEK closing 0.75% higher. The worst performers of the day have been ZARJPY tanking -0.81% and NZDJPY closing -0.63% lower. Read more