EURUSD fails to close above 50-day moving average
Euro/US Dollar (EURUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, EURUSD ended the week 0.55% higher at 1.1038 after gaining 33 pips (0.3%) today on high volume. Today's close at 1.1038 marks the highest recorded closing price since September 19th. Closing above Thursday's high at 1.1034, the pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 29 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURUSD as at Oct 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been 62 pips (0.56%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 60 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for EURUSD.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 1.1000 (S1). After spiking up to 1.1063 during the day, the FX pair found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 1.1049. The last time this happened on August 6th, EURUSD lost -0.03% on the following trading day.
While the currency is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Further buying might move prices higher should the market test September's nearby high at 1.1110.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "White Candle" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for EUR/USD. Out of 543 times, EURUSD closed lower 56.17% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.59% with an average market move of -0.18%.
With five out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 1.67% and AUDUSD closing 0.47% higher. On the flipside the worst performer has been USDCAD closing -0.67% lower. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been ZARJPY surging 2.23% and GBPJPY closing 2.1% higher. The worst performers of the day have been CHFZAR tanking -1.88% and USDZAR closing -1.87% lower. Read more