EURUSD dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day
Euro/US Dollar (EURUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 16, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, EURUSD ended Tuesday at 1.1210 losing 48 pips (-0.43%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Monday's low at 1.1253, the Fiber confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 51 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURUSD as at Jul 16, 2019):
Tuesday's trading range has been 62 pips (0.55%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 52 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for EURUSD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 1.1193 (S1). The pair closed back below the 100-day moving average at 1.1253. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on July 5th, EURUSD lost -0.11% on the following trading day.
The Euro shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
With prices trading close to this year's low at 1.1107, downside momentum could speed up should the forex pair break out to new lows for the year. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test June's nearby low at 1.1159.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 50" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for EUR/USD. Out of 107 times, EURUSD closed higher 57.94% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.14% with an average market move of 0.16%.
With three of the other Major FX Pairs closing higher and three closing lower today, the winners of the day are USDCHF surging 0.35% and USDJPY gaining 0.31%. On the flipside the worst performers have been GBPUSD closing -0.88% lower and AUDUSD losing -0.4%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDHUF surging 0.68% and USDMXN closing 0.67% higher. The worst performers of the day have been GBPHKD tanking -0.99% and GBPSGD closing -0.7% lower. Read more