EURUSD dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day

Euro/US Dollar (EURUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Apr 16, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team


EURUSD breaks back below 50-day moving average
EURUSD dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day
EURUSD breaks below Monday's low


EURUSD finished Tuesday at 1.1281 losing 23 pips (-0.2%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Monday's low at 1.1298, the FX pair confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 18 pips below it intraday.

Daily Candlestick Chart (EURUSD as at Apr 16, 2019):

Daily technical analysis candlestick chart for Euro/US Dollar (EURUSD) as at Apr 16, 2019

Tuesday's trading range has been 34 pips (0.3%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 54 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for EURUSD.

Three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and two bearish patterns, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle. The last time a Bearish Short Candle showed up on February 8th, EURUSD lost -0.41% on the following trading day.

Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 1.1276 (S1). The forex pair closed back below the 50-day moving average at 1.1299.

Although the pair is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.

Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 1.1324 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 1.1230 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 1.1176, downside momentum might accelerate should the Fiber break out to new lows for the year.

Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 50" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for EUR/USD. Out of 105 times, EURUSD closed higher 58.10% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.14% with an average market move of 0.23%.

With three of the other Major FX Pairs closing higher and three closing lower today, the winners of the day are USDCHF surging 0.38% and AUDUSD gaining 0.03%. On the flipside the worst performers have been GBPUSD closing -0.4% lower and USDCAD losing -0.13%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been TRYJPY surging 0.57% and CADCHF closing 0.52% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURTRY tanking -0.82% and USDTRY closing -0.63% lower. Read more

Market Conditions for EURUSD as at Apr 16, 2019

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