EURTRY still stuck within tight trading range
Euro/Turkish Lira (EURTRY) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, EURTRY ended Wednesday at 8.8694 losing 64 pips (-0.07%). Trading 330 pips higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURTRY as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been 835 pips (0.94%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 1123 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for EURTRY. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 8.7885 and 8.9206 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Regardless of a strong opening the currency closed below the prior day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top and the Bearish High-Wave Candle which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Bearish High-Wave Candle showed up on August 21st, EURTRY actually gained 0.99% on the following trading day.
The FX pair ran into sellers again today around 8.9122 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 8.9206 in the previous session and at 8.9140 two days ago.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 8.9206 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 8.7885 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Spinning Top" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for EUR/TRY. Out of 168 times, EURTRY closed higher 47.02% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.14% with an average market move of 0.78%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.61% and NZDUSD closing 0.27% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDJPY closing -0.47% lower and EURUSD losing -0.25%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPPLN surging 0.81% and ZARJPY closing 0.78% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURZAR tanking -1.42% and CHFZAR closing -1.28% lower. Read more