EURTRY slumps -0.96% on high volume
Euro/Turkish Lira (EURTRY) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EURTRY finished the month 6.59% higher at 8.2065 after tanking 794 pips (-0.96%) today on high volume. This is the biggest single-day loss in over a month. The last time we've seen such an unusually strong single-day loss on June 2nd, EURTRY actually gained 1.04% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURTRY as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 1411 pips (1.7%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 974 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly higher than usual for EURTRY.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading down to 8.1813 earlier during the day, the pair bounced off the key technical support level at 8.2041 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 8.1705 in the previous session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 8.1813.
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and might now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 7.9192.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for EUR/TRY. Out of 206 times, EURTRY closed higher 52.43% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.17% with an average market move of 0.88%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are NZDUSD losing -1.04% and AUDUSD closing -0.72% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDJPY closing 1.12% higher and USDCHF gaining 0.48%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDZAR surging 1.87% and GBPZAR closing 1.79% higher. The worst performers of the day have been NZDCAD tanking -1.15% and NZDHKD closing -1.05% lower. Read more