EURTRY runs into sellers again around 7.7462
Euro/Turkish Lira (EURTRY) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 03, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, EURTRY ended the week 0.42% higher at 7.7230 after gaining 137 pips (0.18%) today on low volume. Trading up to 268 pips lower after the open, the market managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURTRY as at Jul 03, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 716 pips (0.93%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 967 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for EURTRY. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 7.6682 and 7.7521 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Last Engulfing Top Pattern. The last time a Last Engulfing Top Pattern showed up on June 11th, EURTRY lost -0.78% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 7.7521 (R1). After having been unable to move above 7.7521 in the prior session, the FX pair ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 7.7462.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 7.7521 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 7.6682 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 7.8560, upside momentum might speed up should the forex pair be able to break out to new highs for the year. Further buying could move prices higher should the market test June's close-by high at 7.8089.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Spinning Top" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for EUR/TRY. Out of 136 times, EURTRY closed higher 54.41% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 63.24% with an average market move of 1.02%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are NZDUSD gaining 0.35% and AUDUSD closing 0.2% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.1% lower and USDCHF losing -0.01%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been EURHUF surging 0.57% and USDHUF closing 0.44% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -0.6% and EURNOK closing -0.51% lower. Read more