EURTRY finds support at 20-day moving average
Euro/Turkish Lira (EURTRY) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EURTRY finished the month 1.66% higher at 7.6994 after edging lower 79 pips (-0.1%) today. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURTRY as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 468 pips (0.61%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 1055 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for EURTRY. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 7.6619 and 7.7387 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
After trading as low as 7.6718 during the day, the market found support at the 20-day moving average at 7.6917. The last time this happened on June 25th, EURTRY actually lost -0.04% on the following trading day.
Though the forex pair is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 7.7387 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 7.6494 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 7.8560, upside momentum might speed up should EUR/TRY be able to break out to new highs for the year. As prices are trading close to June's high at 7.8089, upside momentum could accelerate should the FX pair mark new highs for the month.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Spinning Top" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for EUR/TRY. Out of 160 times, EURTRY closed higher 46.88% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.75% with an average market move of 0.69%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more