EURTRY still stuck within tight trading range
Euro/Turkish Lira (EURTRY) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EURTRY ended the week -0.48% lower at 6.5613 after gaining 73 pips (0.11%) today on low volume. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURTRY as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 422 pips (0.64%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 458 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for EURTRY. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 6.5395 and 6.6089 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Thrusting Pattern. The last time a Bullish Hikkake Pattern showed up on January 28th, EURTRY gained 0.17% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 6.5316 (S1). Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 6.5773 (R1), the market closed below it after spiking up to 6.5817 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward.
Although the pair is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 6.6089 where further buy stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 6.5057, downside momentum might speed up should the currency break out to new lows for the year.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Hikkake Pattern" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for EUR/TRY. Out of 44 times, EURTRY closed higher 54.55% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.82% with an average market move of -0.01%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are USDCAD losing -0.12% and EURUSD closing -0.08% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.28% higher and GBPUSD gaining 0.02%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDSEK surging 0.51% and EURSEK closing 0.43% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURHUF tanking -0.65% and USDHUF closing -0.58% lower. Read more