EURTRY finds buyers at key support level
Euro/Turkish Lira (EURTRY) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 23, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, EURTRY ended Thursday at 6.5628 losing 77 pips (-0.12%). Trading 186 pips higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on January 16th, EURTRY actually gained 0.00% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURTRY as at Jan 23, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 390 pips (0.59%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 478 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for EURTRY. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 6.5498 and 6.5972 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
After trading down to 6.5498 earlier during the day, the currency bounced off the key technical support level at 6.5535 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels importance as support going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 6.5555 in the previous session, the FX pair found buyers again around the same price level today at 6.5498.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 6.5972 where further buy stops might get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 6.5057, downside momentum could speed up should EUR/TRY break out to new lows for the year.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for EUR/TRY. Out of 187 times, EURTRY closed higher 50.80% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.75% with an average market move of 0.79%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are EURUSD losing -0.34% and USDJPY closing -0.32% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been NZDUSD closing 0.38% higher and USDCHF gaining 0.11%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been NZDSGD surging 0.57% and USDPLN closing 0.53% higher. The worst performers of the day have been ZARJPY tanking -0.91% and EURNZD closing -0.72% lower. Read more