EURSEK stuck within tight trading range
Euro/Swedish Krona (EURSEK) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EURSEK ended Wednesday at 10.3966 losing 199 pips (-0.19%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURSEK as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been 429 pips (0.41%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 822 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for EURSEK. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 10.3675 and 10.4292 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Regardless of a strong opening EUR/SEK closed below the previous day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on September 9th, EURSEK actually gained 0.43% on the following trading day.
The FX pair ran into sellers again today around 10.4290 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 10.4292 in the prior session and at 10.4244 two days ago.
While the forex pair is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 10.4292 where further buy stops could get triggered. Trading close to July's high at 10.5154 we might see further upside momentum if potential buy stops at the level get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous two Highs" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for EUR/SEK. Out of 250 times, EURSEK closed higher 52.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.40% with an average market move of 0.14%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.61% and NZDUSD closing 0.27% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDJPY closing -0.47% lower and EURUSD losing -0.25%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPPLN surging 0.81% and ZARJPY closing 0.78% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURZAR tanking -1.42% and CHFZAR closing -1.28% lower. Read more