EURPLN breaks back below 20-day moving average
Euro/Polish Zloty (EURPLN) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, EURPLN ended the month -0.04% lower at 4.4462 after losing 100 pips (-0.22%) today. Trading 168 pips higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing below Monday's low at 4.4534, the currency confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 156 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURPLN as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 331 pips (0.74%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 351 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for EURPLN.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Bearish Spinning Top.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 4.4312 (S1). The forex pair closed back below the 20-day moving average at 4.4463 for the first time since June 16th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on June 12th, EURPLN lost -0.63% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move above 4.4748 in the prior session, the pair ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 4.4709.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 4.4762 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 4.4312 where further sell stops might get triggered. As prices are trading close to June's high at 4.4829, upside momentum could speed up should EUR/PLN mark new highs for the month.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Hikkake Pattern" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for EUR/PLN. Out of 140 times, EURPLN closed higher 51.43% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.14% with an average market move of 0.14%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more