EURPLN breaks below Wednesday's low
Euro/Polish Zloty (EURPLN) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, EURPLN finished Thursday at 4.5262 losing 437 pips (-0.96%). Closing below Wednesday's low at 4.5444, the forex pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 409 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURPLN as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 983 pips (2.15%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 644 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly higher than usual for EURPLN.
After having been unable to move above 4.6088 in the prior session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 4.6018. The last time this happened on Tuesday, EURPLN lost -0.76% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed below last periods low" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for EUR/PLN. Out of 523 times, EURPLN closed higher 53.54% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.15% with an average market move of 0.14%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 2.72% and NZDUSD closing 1.88% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCHF closing -1.43% lower and USDJPY losing -1.42%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPHKD surging 2.72% and GBPZAR closing 2.65% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -4.12% and USDNOK closing -3.12% lower. Read more