EURPLN rises to highest close since December 27, 2019
Euro/Polish Zloty (EURPLN) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 24, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, EURPLN finished the week 0.4% higher at 4.2567 after gaining 122 pips (0.29%) today on high volume. Today's close at 4.2567 marks the highest recorded closing price since December 27, 2019. Trading up to 87 pips lower after the open, the market managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on Monday, EURPLN actually lost -0.42% on the following trading day. Closing above Thursday's high at 4.2489, the currency confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 123 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURPLN as at Jan 24, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 240 pips (0.57%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 196 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for EURPLN.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 4.2511 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 4.2373 in the prior session, the forex pair found buyers again around the same price level today at 4.2372.
Though EUR/PLN is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
With prices trading close to this year's high at 4.2658, upside momentum might accelerate should the pair be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "3 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for EUR/PLN. Out of 165 times, EURPLN closed lower 57.58% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.55% with an average market move of -0.19%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are GBPUSD losing -0.41% and AUDUSD closing -0.34% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.23% higher and USDCAD gaining 0.14%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDNOK surging 0.57% and USDPLN closing 0.53% higher. The worst performers of the day have been GBPJPY tanking -0.6% and AUDJPY closing -0.53% lower. Read more