EURNZD breaks back below 200-day moving average
Euro/New Zealand Dollar (EURNZD) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, EURNZD finished Wednesday at 1.7553 losing 95 pips (-0.54%). Closing below Tuesday's low at 1.7619, the currency confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 112 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURNZD as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been 152 pips (0.86%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 142 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for EURNZD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 1.7496 (S1). The pair closed back below the 200-day moving average at 1.7564 for the first time since September 2nd. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on September 2nd, EURNZD actually gained 0.84% on the following trading day.
Though still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 1.7470 where further sell stops could get triggered. As prices are trading close to September's low at 1.7470, downside momentum might speed up should the forex pair mark new lows for the month.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for EUR/NZD. Out of 528 times, EURNZD closed lower 56.63% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after five trading days, showing a win rate of 52.65% with an average market move of -0.05%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.61% and NZDUSD closing 0.27% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDJPY closing -0.47% lower and EURUSD losing -0.25%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPPLN surging 0.81% and ZARJPY closing 0.78% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURZAR tanking -1.42% and CHFZAR closing -1.28% lower. Read more