EURNZD breaks back below 200-day moving average
Euro/New Zealand Dollar (EURNZD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EURNZD finished the month -2.75% lower at 1.7404 after losing 104 pips (-0.59%) today. Closing below Monday's low at 1.7466, EUR/NZD confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 75 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURNZD as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 163 pips (0.93%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 168 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for EURNZD.
Even with a strong opening the market closed below the prior day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on June 1st, EURNZD lost -0.91% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The pair closed back below the 200-day moving average at 1.7472.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 1.7576 where further buy stops could get triggered. As prices are trading close to June's low at 1.7191, downside momentum might speed up should the forex pair mark new lows for the month.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Engulfing Candle" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for EUR/NZD. Out of 107 times, EURNZD closed higher 52.34% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.94% with an average market move of 0.42%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more