EURNOK breaks below key technical support level
Euro/Norwegian Krone (EURNOK) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EURNOK ended the month -0.85% lower at 10.7190 after losing 350 pips (-0.33%) today. Trading 294 pips higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURNOK as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 822 pips (0.76%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 1062 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for EURNOK.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. After moving higher in the prior session, the currency closed lower but above the previous day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 10.7229 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. The last time this happened on July 14th, EURNOK lost -1.13% on the following trading day.
Although the forex pair is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 10.8035 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 10.6319 where further sell stops might get triggered. As prices are trading close to July's high at 10.8325, upside momentum could speed up should EUR/NOK mark new highs for the month.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bearish Intraday Reversal" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for EUR/NOK. Out of 508 times, EURNOK closed higher 56.10% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 50.39% with an average market move of 0.11%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are NZDUSD losing -1.04% and AUDUSD closing -0.72% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDJPY closing 1.12% higher and USDCHF gaining 0.48%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDZAR surging 1.87% and GBPZAR closing 1.79% higher. The worst performers of the day have been NZDCAD tanking -1.15% and NZDHKD closing -1.05% lower. Read more