EURNOK misses to close above 50-day moving average
Euro/Norwegian Krone (EURNOK) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, EURNOK finished the month 0.09% higher at 10.8114 after losing 656 pips (-0.6%) today on low volume. Trading 745 pips higher after the open, the forex pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing below Monday's low at 10.8414, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 962 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURNOK as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 2056 pips (1.89%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 1605 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for EURNOK.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top. The last time a Bearish Spinning Top showed up on June 23rd, EURNOK actually gained 1.03% on the following trading day.
After trading down to 10.7452 earlier during the day, the pair bounced off the key technical support level at 10.7813 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels significance as support going forward. After spiking up to 10.9508 during the day, EUR/NOK found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 10.9343. The FX pair was sold again around 10.9508 after having seen highs at 10.9389, 10.9359 and 10.9361 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
The currency shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
As prices are trading close to June's high at 11.0204, upside momentum might accelerate should EURNOK mark new highs for the month.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Spinning Top" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for EUR/NOK. Out of 251 times, EURNOK closed higher 54.18% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.58% with an average market move of 0.23%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more