EURJPY breaks back below 20-day moving average
Euro/Japanese Yen (EURJPY) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 25, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, EURJPY finished Tuesday at 119.92 losing 24 pips (-0.2%) on high volume. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURJPY as at Feb 25, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 113 pips (0.94%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 76 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for EURJPY.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 119.25 (S1). The FX pair closed back below the 20-day moving average at 120.03 for the first time since February 18th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on January 23rd, EURJPY lost -0.50% on the following trading day.
The market shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 20" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for EUR/JPY. Out of 149 times, EURJPY closed lower 52.35% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.39% with an average market move of -0.30%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are USDJPY losing -0.47% and NZDUSD closing -0.3% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been GBPUSD closing 0.58% higher and EURUSD gaining 0.25%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.14% and GBPNZD closing 0.89% higher. The worst performers of the day have been ZARJPY tanking -0.96% and TRYJPY closing -0.88% lower. Read more