EURCZK breaks below Wednesday's low
Euro/Czech Koruna (EURCZK) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, EURCZK ended Thursday at 27.1790 losing 3033 pips (-1.1%) on low volume. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Wednesday's low at 27.2986, the pair confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 1288 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURCZK as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 4468 pips (1.63%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 4674 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for EURCZK.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term. With its 50-day moving average crossing above its 200-day moving average, the FX pair has entered a so-called "Golden Cross" for the first time since November 19, 2019. Showing increasing upward momentum in the short and medium-term the "Golden Cross" is known to indicate a potential bull market on the horizon. When the last "Golden Cross" happened on September 9, 2019, EURCZK actually lost -0.00% on the following trading day.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 26.9021 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Down Close Near Low of Period" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for EUR/CZK. Out of 324 times, EURCZK closed higher 55.56% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.01% with an average market move of 0.17%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 2.72% and NZDUSD closing 1.88% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCHF closing -1.43% lower and USDJPY losing -1.42%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPHKD surging 2.72% and GBPZAR closing 2.65% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -4.12% and USDNOK closing -3.12% lower. Read more