EURCZK runs into sellers again around 24.9030
Euro/Czech Koruna (EURCZK) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EURCZK ended the week -0.7% lower at 24.8625 after losing 97 pips (-0.04%) today on high volume. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURCZK as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 1368 pips (0.55%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 1042 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly higher than usual for EURCZK.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Takuri Line which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Bearish Spinning Top.
After trading down to 24.7662 earlier during the day, the forex pair bounced off the key technical support level at 24.8112 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels significance as support going forward. When prices bounced off a significant support level the last time on February 3rd, EURCZK actually lost -0.43% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move above 24.8939 in the prior session, the currency ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 24.9030.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Outside Bar" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for EUR/CZK. Out of 213 times, EURCZK closed higher 61.50% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.62% with an average market move of 0.05%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are USDCAD losing -0.12% and EURUSD closing -0.08% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.28% higher and GBPUSD gaining 0.02%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDSEK surging 0.51% and EURSEK closing 0.43% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURHUF tanking -0.65% and USDHUF closing -0.58% lower. Read more