EURCHF closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
Euro/Swiss Franc (EURCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, EURCHF ended Wednesday at 1.0746 losing 12 pips (-0.11%). Today's close at 1.0746 marks the lowest recorded closing price since August 26th. Closing below Tuesday's low at 1.0753, the FX pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 15 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURCHF as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been 29 pips (0.27%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 45 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for EURCHF.
After trading down to 1.0738 earlier during the day, the forex pair bounced off the key technical support level at 1.0741 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward. When prices bounced off a significant support level the last time on September 2nd, EURCHF actually lost -0.16% on the following trading day.
Though the pair is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 1.0786 where further buy stops might get triggered. Further selling could move prices lower should the market test August's nearby low at 1.0722.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bearish for EUR/CHF. Out of 902 times, EURCHF closed lower 51.66% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.32% with an average market move of -0.09%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.61% and NZDUSD closing 0.27% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDJPY closing -0.47% lower and EURUSD losing -0.25%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPPLN surging 0.81% and ZARJPY closing 0.78% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURZAR tanking -1.42% and CHFZAR closing -1.28% lower. Read more