EURCHF dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day
Euro/Swiss Franc (EURCHF) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EURCHF finished the week 0.71% higher at 1.0590 after losing 37 pips (-0.35%) today. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURCHF as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 51 pips (0.48%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 44 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for EURCHF.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The pair closed back below the 100-day moving average at 1.0621. The currency found buyers again today around 1.0582 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 1.0584 in the previous session and at 1.0578 two days ago.
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and might now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 1.0555. The last time this happened on Wednesday, EURCHF actually gained 0.32% on the following trading day.
While still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 1.0578 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close crossed below the upper Bollinger Band" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for EUR/CHF. Out of 74 times, EURCHF closed lower 58.11% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 68.92% with an average market move of -0.21%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are GBPUSD losing -0.47% and EURUSD closing -0.44% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCAD closing 0.33% higher and USDCHF gaining 0.08%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDCZK surging 1.09% and USDHUF closing 0.9% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -0.58% and SGDHKD closing -0.51% lower. Read more