EURCHF misses to close above 50-day moving average
Euro/Swiss Franc (EURCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EURCHF ended Thursday at 1.0627 edging lower 5 pips (-0.05%). Trading 22 pips higher after the open, the forex pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURCHF as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 39 pips (0.37%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 64 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for EURCHF.
After moving higher in the prior session, the market closed lower but above the previous day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top. The last time a Bearish Spinning Top showed up on March 18th, EURCHF lost -0.21% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 1.0608 (S1). After spiking up to 1.0654 during the day, EUR/CHF found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 1.0644.
Although the currency is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Spinning Top" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for EUR/CHF. Out of 279 times, EURCHF closed lower 51.25% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.20% with an average market move of -0.18%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 2.72% and NZDUSD closing 1.88% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCHF closing -1.43% lower and USDJPY losing -1.42%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPHKD surging 2.72% and GBPZAR closing 2.65% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -4.12% and USDNOK closing -3.12% lower. Read more