EURCAD slips to lowest close since July 15th
Euro/Canadian Dollar (EURCAD) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 13, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 5th day in a row, EURCAD finished Tuesday at 1.5431 losing 60 pips (-0.39%) on low volume. Today's close at 1.5431 marks the lowest recorded closing price since July 15th. Closing below Monday's low at 1.5475, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 70 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURCAD as at Oct 13, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 99 pips (0.64%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 83 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for EURCAD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The pair closed below the 100-day moving average at 1.5490 for the first time since February 26th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on February 6th, EURCAD lost -0.16% on the following trading day.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day while might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 1.5587.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "5 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for EUR/CAD. Out of 33 times, EURCAD closed higher 66.67% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after five trading days, showing a win rate of 54.55% with an average market move of 0.09%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are USDCHF gaining 0.62% and USDCAD closing 0.19% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been GBPUSD closing -1.01% lower and AUDUSD losing -0.67%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDHUF surging 1.78% and USDPLN closing 1.48% higher. The worst performers of the day have been GBPZAR tanking -1.14% and GBPNZD closing -1.03% lower. Read more