EURCAD falls to lowest close since April 17, 2017
Euro/Canadian Dollar (EURCAD) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 9th day in a row, EURCAD ended the week -1.45% lower at 1.4353 after losing 29 pips (-0.2%) today on low volume. Today's close at 1.4353 marks the lowest recorded closing price since April 17, 2017. Closing below Thursday's low at 1.4355, the forex pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 7 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EURCAD as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 47 pips (0.33%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 74 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for EURCAD.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Bearish Short Candle showed up on Tuesday, EURCAD lost -0.66% on the following trading day.
After having been unable to move lower than 1.4355 in the prior session, the FX pair found buyers again around the same price level today at 1.4348.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since January 2nd, prices have shown unusually strong downward momentum in the short-term. This might either indicate a potential selling climax after which prices could head back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 1.4533 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Short Candle" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for EUR/CAD. Out of 70 times, EURCAD closed higher 60.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.29% with an average market move of 0.12%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are USDCAD losing -0.12% and EURUSD closing -0.08% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.28% higher and GBPUSD gaining 0.02%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDSEK surging 0.51% and EURSEK closing 0.43% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURHUF tanking -0.65% and USDHUF closing -0.58% lower. Read more