CZKUSD closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Czech Koruna/US Dollar (CZKUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CZKUSD ended the month 6.56% higher at 0.044885 after losing 290 pips (-0.64%) today on high volume. Trading 307 pips higher after the open, the pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on July 16th, CZKUSD actually gained 0.54% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CZKUSD as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 700 pips (1.55%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of 486 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly higher than usual for CZKUSD.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bearish Intraday Reversal" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for CZK/USD. Out of 469 times, CZKUSD closed higher 50.53% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after seven trading days, showing a win rate of 54.80% with an average market move of 0.09%.