CZKUSD breaks below Monday's low
Czech Koruna/US Dollar (CZKUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Apr 16, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, CZKUSD finished Tuesday at 0.043951 losing 136 pips (-0.31%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Monday's low at 0.044059, the pair confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 122 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CZKUSD as at Apr 16, 2019):
Tuesday's trading range has been 183 pips (0.42%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 268 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for CZKUSD.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.043921 (S1). The market closed back below the 50-day moving average at 0.043984. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on April 11th, CZKUSD actually gained 0.41% on the following trading day.
CZK/USD shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 0.044199 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 0.043862 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 50" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for CZK/USD. Out of 104 times, CZKUSD closed higher 60.58% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.81% with an average market move of 0.07%.