CZKEUR finds buyers around 0.036746 for the third day in a row
Czech Koruna/Euro (CZKEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CZKEUR ended Monday at 0.036790 losing 230 pips (-0.62%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CZKEUR as at Oct 12, 2020):
Monday's trading range has been 285 pips (0.77%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 297 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for CZKEUR. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.036731 and 0.037047 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. After moving higher in the prior session, the market closed lower but above the previous day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on October 8th, CZKEUR actually gained 0.67% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.036720 (S1). After spiking up to 0.037031 during the day, the currency found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 0.037016. CZK/EUR found buyers again today around 0.036746 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 0.036731 in the prior session and at 0.036731 two days ago.
The forex pair shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 0.037047 where further buy stops might get triggered. Further selling could move prices lower should the market test September's close-by low at 0.036683.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Harami Candle" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for CZK/EUR. Out of 51 times, CZKEUR closed higher 54.90% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after four trading days, showing a win rate of 60.78% with an average market move of 0.01%.