CZKEUR unable to break through key resistance level
Czech Koruna/Euro (CZKEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 18, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CZKEUR ended the week -0.68% lower at 0.037381 after losing 54 pips (-0.14%) today. Trading 74 pips higher after the open, the currency was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on September 3rd, CZKEUR lost -0.35% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CZKEUR as at Sep 18, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 162 pips (0.43%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 205 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for CZKEUR. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.037324 and 0.037503 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.037242 (S1). Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.037429 (R1), the forex pair closed below it after spiking up to 0.037503 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward. The FX pair found buyers again today around 0.037341 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 0.037330 in the previous session and at 0.037324 two days ago.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 0.037242 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Price broke through Technical Support S1" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for CZK/EUR. Out of 324 times, CZKEUR closed higher 54.63% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 56.48% with an average market move of 0.03%.