CZKEUR unable to break through key resistance level
Czech Koruna/Euro (CZKEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CZKEUR finished the week 0.71% higher at 0.040221 after gaining 15 pips (0.04%) today on high volume. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CZKEUR as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 222 pips (0.55%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 166 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for CZKEUR.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Shooting Star.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.040304 (R1), the currency closed below it after spiking up to 0.040378 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on February 3rd, CZKEUR actually gained 0.44% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move lower than 0.040170 in the prior session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 0.040156.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Outside Bar" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for CZK/EUR. Out of 195 times, CZKEUR closed lower 60.51% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.51% with an average market move of -0.05%.