CHFUSD unable to break through key resistance level
Swiss Franc/US Dollar (CHFUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CHFUSD ended the month 1.49% higher at 1.0556 after gaining 43 pips (0.41%) today. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CHFUSD as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 78 pips (0.74%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 76 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CHFUSD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 1.0491 and 1.0601 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Regardless of a weak opening the forex pair managed to close above the prior day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 1.0566 (R1), the FX pair closed below it after spiking up to 1.0569 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on June 19th, CHFUSD actually gained 0.50% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move lower than 1.0499 in the previous session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 1.0491.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 1.0591 where further buy stops could get activated.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for CHF/USD. Out of 528 times, CHFUSD closed lower 55.11% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.46% with an average market move of -0.04%.