CHFUSD declines to lowest close since December 20, 2019
Swiss Franc/US Dollar (CHFUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, CHFUSD finished the week -0.47% lower at 1.0181 after losing 28 pips (-0.27%) today on low volume. Today's close at 1.0181 marks the lowest recorded closing price since December 20, 2019. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 1.0208, the currency confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 28 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CHFUSD as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 39 pips (0.38%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 46 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for CHFUSD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on Wednesday, CHFUSD lost -0.14% on the following trading day.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since February 7th, prices have shown unusually strong downward momentum in the short-term. This could either indicate a potential selling climax after which prices might head back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 1.0284 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices.
Though CHF/USD is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Black Candle" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for CHF/USD. Out of 593 times, CHFUSD closed higher 50.25% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 48.40% with an average market move of 0.10%.