CHFUSD closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
Swiss Franc/US Dollar (CHFUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, CHFUSD ended the week -0.14% lower at 1.0031 after edging lower 1 pip (-0.01%) today on high volume. Trading up to 21 pips lower after the open, the pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on October 1st, CHFUSD actually lost -0.38% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CHFUSD as at Oct 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been 33 pips (0.33%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 64 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CHFUSD.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Southern Doji which is known as bullish pattern and one neutral pattern, the Doji.
After trading down to 1.0009 earlier during the day, the FX pair bounced off the key technical support level at 1.0024 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels significance as support going forward.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 1.0087 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.9972 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Doji" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bearish for CHF/USD. Out of 145 times, CHFUSD closed lower 55.17% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.48% with an average market move of -0.19%.