CHFUSD crashes -0.37% closing 37 pips lower
Swiss Franc/US Dollar (CHFUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Apr 16, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, CHFUSD ended Tuesday at 0.9922 tanking 37 pips (-0.37%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over two weeks. The last time we've seen such an unusually strong single-day loss on March 7th, CHFUSD actually gained 0.32% on the following trading day. Today's close at 0.9922 marks the lowest recorded closing price since March 11th. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Monday's low at 0.9954, CHF/USD confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 35 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CHFUSD as at Apr 16, 2019):
Tuesday's trading range has been 49 pips (0.49%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 43 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CHFUSD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.9901 (S1). Prices broke below the key technical support level at 0.9947 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since March 7th, prices have shown unusually strong downward momentum in the short-term. This might either indicate a potential selling climax after which prices could head back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 1.0017 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
With prices trading close to this year's low at 0.9878, downside momentum might accelerate should the market break out to new lows for the year.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for CHF/USD. Out of 325 times, CHFUSD closed higher 53.23% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 50.46% with an average market move of 0.11%.