CHFJPY pops to highest close since June 4th
Swiss Franc/Japanese Yen (CHFJPY) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 5th day in a row, CHFJPY ended the month 1.54% higher at 113.94 after surging 85 pips (0.75%) today. This is the biggest single-day gain in over three weeks. Today's close at 113.94 marks the highest recorded closing price since June 4th. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Monday's high at 113.65, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 36 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CHFJPY as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 107 pips (0.95%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 82 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CHFJPY.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the White Candle which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Last Engulfing Top Pattern. The last time a Last Engulfing Top Pattern showed up on June 2nd, CHFJPY actually gained 0.33% on the following trading day.
After having been unable to move lower than 112.97 in the prior session, the pair found buyers again around the same price level today at 112.94.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 112.67 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 114.61, upside momentum might accelerate should the forex pair be able to break out to new highs for the year. As prices are trading close to June's low at 111.82, downside momentum could speed up should the currency mark new lows for the month.
Among the 12 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "5 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for CHF/JPY. Out of 38 times, CHFJPY closed higher 63.16% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.26% with an average market move of 0.58%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more